The Red Sea: in the eye of a geopolitical storm

The Red Sea has become the centre of a geopolitical crisis. How to secure one of the world’s most crowded trade routes? With, amongst others, NATO-Chief of Staff Geoffrey van Leeuwen we speak about proxy wars, maritime strategy and trade.

Every year, roughly 33% of global containerised trade passes through the Red Sea. At its narrowest point, just 26 kilometres wide, the sea is one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints. The attacks in the last years by the Yemen-based Houthis have once again demonstrated the vulnerability of this geostrategic corridor. By sinking four vessels and hijacking another with relative ease, the Houthis have found an effective means to exert political leverage and managed to decrease maritime traffic through the passage from November 2023 onwards with 55%, bringing international trade through the Red Sea effectively to a standstill.

With the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal no longer viable routes for most shipping companies, vessels traveling between Europe and Asia have increasingly diverted around Africa. For the EU, particularly for a maritime trading nation like the Netherlands, this divergence significantly complicates supply chains, increases costs, and critically exposes strategic vulnerabilities. As the cessation of Houthi attacks appears contingent on the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, European shipping companies ask whether a return to the strait is a realistic option at all.

During this event we think through a set of interrelated questions: what geopolitical stakes are at play in the Red Sea region, what conditions are required to ensure safety and security, who are the key actors shaping developments in this strategically vital corridor, and specifically what role does NATO take on in its naval strategy?

Geoffrey van Leeuwen is NATO-Chief of Staff and Director of the Office of the Secretary General. Before taking over as Chief of Staff and Director of the Office of the Secretary General, Geoffrey van Leeuwen served as Minister for Foreign Trade and Development Cooperation for the Netherlands, after having spent several years as National Security Advisor to Prime Minister Mark Rutte.

Benedetta Girardi is Programme Coordinator of the HCSS Europe in the Indo-Pacific programme and Strategic Analyst at HCSS. Her research focuses on the role of Europe in the Indo-Pacific, with specific attention to supply chains of energy, critical raw materials, and semiconductors as well as avenues for engagement between European and Indo-Pacific states.

Paul van Hooft is expert on international security, nuclear deterrence and strategy, US-European relations, and the Indo-Pacific. He is a research leader at RAND Europe.

Máté Szalai is a Research Fellow at the Conflict Research Unit of Clingendael. As a member of the Middle East group, he specializes in the international relations and the domestic political economic systems of the broader Gulf region.

Erik Meijer is conducting Phd research in the field of maritime and naval strategy. His focus is on the role of naval strategy in the research field of ‘small navies’.